Majority of Russians expect war in Ukraine to end in 2026, state survey finds | Russia-Ukraine War

“The main reason for optimism” is the belief that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026 once Moscow’s “goals” are achieved, according to the investigative institute.

The majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, a state research center said. Russian forces are advancing on the battlefield and efforts are intensifying to reach a ceasefire agreement between Kyiv and Moscow.

VTsIOM, Russia’s leading public opinion research center, said Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment around the year ahead and expectations for the year ahead found that Russians are looking toward 2026 with “increasing optimism.”

“Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic…In other words, even if the negative perception of the current situation persists, Russians have become more likely to accept (or believe, hope?) future improvements this year, but they still do so cautiously,” the organization said in an analysis of its survey results published online.

In an end-of-year presentation, VTsIOM deputy director Mikhail Mamonov said 70% of 1,600 respondents viewed 2026 as a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, with 55% of respondents associating hope for a better year with a possible end to what Russia officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the declared goals, in accordance with the national interests defined by the president,” Mamonov said during the presentation.

Mamonov emphasized the role of the Russian army offensive underway in UkraineWashington’s reluctance to finance the war in Ukraine and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the United States’ role in Ukraine – financially and militarily – are key factors in the prospects for a possible deal to end the fighting.

When the conflict ends, the reintegration of Russian veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border areas, will be the main priorities, Mamonov added.

Although the Russian public’s true level of war weariness is difficult to measure due to tight state controls on media, expressions of public dissent as well as prosecutions of those who criticize Moscow’s war against its neighbor, around two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, according to the independent Levada polling institute, the highest figure since the war began in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments published Wednesday that he would be willing to withdraw his troops from Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland as part of a plan to end the war, if Moscow would reciprocate by also withdrawing its forces and allowing the area to become a demilitarized zone monitored by international forces.

In comments to reporters on a comprehensive 20-point plan that Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators have hammered out in Florida in recent days, Zelensky also said a similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control.

Russia has given no indication that it would agree to any withdrawal from the land it has seized in Ukraine and has long insisted that kyiv must give up the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbass industrial zone before any discussions on ceasing fighting.

Russia has captured most of Luhansk and around 70% of Donetsk – the two regions that make up Donbass.

Zelensky also said that determining future control of Donbas under the plan was “the most difficult point,” and that creating a demilitarized economic zone in the region would require difficult discussions about how far troops would have to retreat and where international forces would be stationed.

Such discussions should take place at the leadership level, he said.