Russia claims to have seized more than 5,100 km² of Ukraine in 2025 | Russia-Ukraine War

Russia is doubling down on its demands on Ukraine, with the apparent aim of demonstrating some military success in 2025 at home and influencing peace talks with the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said journalists last Friday at an end-of-year press conference that Moscow forces had seized Siversk in the eastern Donetsk region and Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 elementsend of list

Putin also claimed that Russian forces held at least half of Lyman and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk, as well as Hulyaipole in the southern Zaporizhia region – all front-line towns.

Ukrainian observers disagree. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, said satellite and open source visual evidence contradicts Putin.

“ISW has not observed any evidence confirming any of these claimed seizures or significant advances and has only observed evidence indicating a Russian presence. [either through infiltration missions or assaults] in 7.3 percent of Hulyaipole and 2.9 percent of Lyman,” he writes.

The ISW also estimated that Russian advances had claimed only 5% of Kostiantynivka.

“Even Russian bloggers [military reporters’] The claimed advances do not support many of Putin’s claims,” the ISW said, with bloggers claiming that “Russian forces seized a maximum” of about 7 percent of Lyman and 11 percent of Kostiantynivka.

The Kremlin also claimed to have full possession of Kupiansk in Kharkiv and Pokrovsk in Donetsk. The ISW estimates that Russia owns no more than 7.2 percent of Kharkiv, and Ukraine’s commander-in-chief has said that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russia out of 16 square kilometers (6.1 square miles) of Pokrovsk.

On December 18, Russian Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov delivered an end-of-year report to foreign military officials, saying Russia had seized 6,300 square kilometers (2,432 square miles) of Ukraine this year, slightly more than the 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) claimed by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov a week earlier.

But the ISW estimates that Russia seized only 4,984 square kilometers (1,900 square miles) containing 196 settlements, instead of the 300 claimed by Russian officials.

Putin has indeed claimed, rightly, to have captured the eastern city of Siversk.

Zelensky welcomes “cooperation” with the United States despite disagreements

The false Russian claims come over a two-week period as U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators intensified talks on a peace plan, a process that ended Monday after three days of negotiations in Florida.

“We feel that America wants to reach a final agreement, and on our side there is full cooperation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a speech to his people on Tuesday evening.

Again the 20-point plan he publicly revealed on Wednesday morning that on the most sensitive territorial issue there was no agreement between the United States and Ukraine.

Russia demanded that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, in addition to Crimea.

Ukraine refuses. Europe has suggested leaving a territorial discussion until after a complete ceasefire.

Zelensky called for a summit with US President Donald Trump to develop a common position on territorial adjustments.

Significantly, the United States agreed to NATO-level security guarantees for Ukraine – a mutual defense clause that could lead NATO to go to war on Ukraine’s side if Russia were to attack it again.

Separately, the European Union announced that it would make Ukraine a full member in the near future, which would also give it the right to mutual defense against the bloc’s members, most of whom are NATO members.

Just as important, the plan allows Ukraine to maintain its army at full strength and does not require it to recognize the occupied territory as de facto Russian – points that Moscow had insisted on and that the United States included in its initial proposal.

The Kremlin said it was aware of the 20-point document drawn up by Washington and kyiv.

Russia will “formulate” its position and “continue our contacts in the very near future through existing channels that are currently functioning,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday.

Long range strikes

As the war raged on the ground, Russia and Ukraine exchanged long-range strikes with drones and missiles.

During the week of December 18-24, Russia launched 1,227 drones and 41 missiles into Ukraine. Ukraine intercepted 80 percent of the drones and 83 percent of the missiles, but strikes on Saturday and Tuesday killed at least four civilians. including a child.

The State Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it struck two Russian Su-27 fighter jets at the Belbek airbase near occupied Sevastopol in Crimea on December 20. Two days earlier, Ukraine had weakened the base’s air defense systems and hit a MiG-31 interceptor plane.

Ukraine also said it hit a Russian oil rig owned by Lukoil in the Caspian Sea and damaged one of its drilling platforms.

Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries, power plants and other energy infrastructure this year, aiming to disrupt Moscow’s export revenues and the Russian military’s fuel supply.

In November, Ukraine also began targeting Russian-owned oil tankers with surface drones. Ukrainian aerial drones struck the Qendil in the Mediterranean Sea on Friday, the first time Ukraine has directed its strikes against oil tankers so far from its shores.

On Monday, Ukrainian military intelligence used a car bomb to assassinate Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the operational training department of the Russian General Staff.

European aid

Trump announced he would no longer send military assistance to Ukraine shortly after taking office, but agreed to sell weapons to kyiv, financed by the European Union, Canada, Australia and Japan, which are now funding the war effort.

This process took an important step on Friday, when the European Council of Heads of Government approved a loan of 90 billion euros ($106 billion) to Ukraine over two years.

“Ukraine will receive at least $45 billion ($53 billion) per year over the next two years. And these funds can only be repaid from Russian funds,” Zelensky told Ukrainians after the decision. But Europe has steadfastly refused to establish any link between the 210 billion euros of Russian state assets tied up in European banks and the loan, after Italy, Bulgaria, Malta and Belgium vetoed a plan to use the money as collateral for a reparations loan to Ukraine.

“No one will ever be able to explain to European voters why Europe should give 200 billion [$235bn] let’s return to Putin – after everything he destroyed and after all the difficult choices Europe had to make because of his war,” Zelensky told European leaders on December 18.

The 20-point US-Ukraine plan commits to mobilizing $800 billion for Ukraine’s reconstruction.