Leaders aim to consolidate power in two African elections

On Sunday, citizens of Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR) will go to the polls to elect their presidents for a seven-year term.

The two ballots could, in theory, lead to a second round. Yet in both cases, the incumbent candidates are heavy favorites, with observers predicting they will win in the first round with more than 50% of the vote.

But that’s where the similarities end.

The vast and landlocked CAR is one of the poorest countries in Africa, plagued by chronic instability for decades, with a succession of armed groups motivated by various local demands, racketeering opportunities or political ambitions.

From 2013 to 2016, only the intervention of African, French and then UN peacekeepers made it possible to avoid a slide towards deeper inter-community violence.

The national government in Bangui, the riverine capital on the southern border just across the Democratic Republic of Congo, has often struggled to assert authority in remote areas of the north or Far East.

Despite these persistent fragilities, the multiparty system has mostly survived, with a certain degree of tolerance for opposition and protests.

There is a sense of national identity and this year two of the largest rebel groups have been reintegrated into the peace process and have begun to disarm and demobilize.

The country has a pioneering special court to try human rights crimes, made up of a mix of domestic and international judges.

President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is a mathematician and former university rector.

He entered politics as Prime Minister under the leadership of the coup leader turned elected head of state, François Bozizé.

Later, after a chaotic interlude of rebel rule and an uncertain transition, he was elected head of state as a consensual, post-conflict figure in civil society.

Today, as the end of his second term approaches, Touadéra is seen as a much more political and partisan figure.

He bulldozed constitutional reform to remove term limits, allowing him to run again. This provoked a boycott by much, but not all, of the opposition.

Yet, contrary to widely held expectations, his main electoral rival, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, was allowed to participate in the electoral race.

This contrasts with the situation in Guinea, on Africa’s west coast, where General Mamadi Doumbouya, leader of the September 2021 coup that deposed 83-year-old civilian President Alpha Condé, is now preparing to become a constitutionally elected leader.

Although Doumbouya faces eight opponents at the polls, he has dominated the campaign, with his image plastered all over the streets of Conakry, the Guinean capital.

The most prominent opposition figure of the past decade, Cellou Dalein Diallo, who enjoys wide personal support within the large Fulani community which represents around 40% of the electorate, was excluded from the vote.

Despite these constraints on the political choice presented to voters, the return of an elected government will be a great relief for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc that promotes economic integration, democracy and military cooperation among its members.

Nearly a year ago, it suffered a major blow with the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger after the military regimes that had seized power in a wave of coups between 2020 and 2023 refused to comply with the bloc’s demands to commit to clear deadlines for the restoration of civilian rule.

Doumbouya made a different choice.

Although he maintained good relations with the junta in neighboring Mali, he carried out a methodical constitutional review, which set the stage for Sunday’s vote, although it was delayed longer than ECOWAS initially wanted.

Its approach to international relations also stands in stark contrast to that of neighboring regimes, which have cultivated close security ties with Russia and repudiated their previous close partnerships with France.

Doumbouya maintains good relations with Western governments, notably Paris. Conakry officials congratulate the French Development Agency as one of their most supportive partners.

Indeed, from the start, the Doumbouya regime has been treated quite gently both by France and by the West in general, as well as by ECOWAS, despite a troubling record in terms of human rights.

His overthrow of Condé – who had held a dubious constitutional referendum to give himself the chance to run for a third term and who had overseen frequent episodes of security force brutality – was celebrated in the streets of Conakry and barely criticized abroad.

Doumbouya won international favor by quickly moving forward with the long-delayed trial of those accused of the notorious 2009 stadium massacre. when around 150 opposition supporters were killed and many women raped.

And even though his own government has seen young protesters shot dead and civil society activists Billo Bah and Foniké Mengué arrested and not heard from since, regional and international reactions have been muted.

West Africa has been rocked by coups and the secession of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS, as well as this month’s attempted putsch in Benin.

Guinea’s decision to stay in the bloc and restore an elected government – even though it violates Doumbouya’s earlier promise that no member of his junta would run for office – was greeted with slight relief by many regional leaders and European governments, as a step towards reconsolidating normality.

With jihadist groups now disrupting daily life and commerce in southern Mali and Burkina Faso, gradual progress toward constitutional stability in Guinea, despite lingering civil rights concerns, has been welcomed.

The same goes for Touadéra’s bid for a third term in CAR, a country slowly emerging from years of insecurity.

The UN peacekeeping force, Minusca, is helping the government gradually restore administration and basic services, even in remote provincial towns.

The CAR still relies heavily on Russian military advice, but the president has taken the time to rebuild good relations with France and maintain a close partnership with the EU and UN.

With war-ravaged Sudan just across the northeast border and deep fragilities persisting at home, international partners are willing to support rather than criticize, despite the frustrations of opponents who say a third term for Touadéra would be illegitimate.