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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a “gigantic” tax refund year for American workers in the first quarter of 2026.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted Americans would see “gigantic” refund checks this upcoming filing season, thanks to the president’s tax cuts. that of Donald Trump A Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Bessent, which also serves as Acting Commissioner of the IRSmade the remark during an appearance on the “All-In Podcast.” The Treasury secretary told the hosts that the tax provisions in the law Trump signed in July applied retroactively to the start of the year and that because most workers had not changed their withholding taxes, many could expect large refunds in 2026.
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President Donald Trump speaks alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the White House Digital Assets Summit March 7, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/Getty Images)
“I can see that we’re going to have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because American workers haven’t changed their withholdings,” Bessent told the hosts of the “All-In Podcast.” “I think households could benefit, depending on the number of workers, from $1,000 to $2,000 in reimbursements.”
Bessent’s prediction echoes that of Tax Foundationa non-partisan tax policy nonprofit organization. The group said in a Dec. 17 report that “refunds will be larger than usual during the upcoming tax filing season due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tax cuts for 2025.”
President Donald Trump signs the sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” at the White House in Washington, DC, July 4, 2025. (Ken Cedeno/Reuters / Reuters)
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The foundation reported its estimate that OBBBA has reduced individual taxes of $144 billion by 2025, adding that external estimates suggest up to $100 billion could go toward higher tax refunds for Americans. While not everyone will see a massive increase in their refunds, the Tax Foundation said savings from OBBBA could push average refunds up to $1,000.
“But because the IRS did not adjust the withholding tables after the law’s passage, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required. As a result, instead of gradually benefiting from tax reductions through higher take-home pay over the course of the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns,” the Tax Foundation wrote.
The Trump administration expects the largest tax refund cycle “in history” this spring 2026. (Getty Images/Getty Images)
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The Tax Foundation lists seven major tax cuts that took effect under OBBBA that could contribute to higher refunds, including increases to the child tax credit and standard deduction, a higher SALT deduction cap, and new or expanded deductions for seniors, auto loan interest, tipped income, and overtime pay.
