The ‘thorny’ issues that threaten to derail the Russian-Ukrainian peace deal

Russia, the United States and Ukraine agree that a deal to end nearly four years of full-scale war is getting closer, but, in the words of President Donald Trump, “one or two very thorny and very difficult issues” remain.

Two of the most sensitive issues in Washington’s 20-point plan concern the territory and fate of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, currently occupied by Russia.

The Kremlin agrees with Trump that negotiations are “in their final stages,” and Zelensky’s next step is to meet European leaders in France on Jan. 6, but any one sticking point could jeopardize a deal.

Vladimir Putin has not budged from his maximalist demands for the entire Ukrainian industrial Donbass, although Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a compromise.

Russian forces occupy most of the Luhansk region in the east, but just over 75 percent of Donetsk, and Putin wants it all, including the remaining “fortress belt” towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

“We cannot withdraw, it is against our law,” Zelensky says. “It’s not just the law. People live there, 300,000 people… We can’t lose these people.”

He proposed that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the area to create a demilitarized or free economic zone monitored by Ukraine, if the Russians also retreat the same distance. The current line of contact would then be monitored by international forces.

It’s hard to imagine Putin agreeing to all this, and Russian generals have told him they will quickly seize Ukrainian territory.

“If the kyiv authorities do not want to resolve this matter peacefully, we will resolve all the problems that present themselves to us by military means,” Putin said.

Both sides are generally considered exhausted, and analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have estimated that it will take Russian forces until August 2027 to conquer the rest of Donetsk if they are able to maintain their current rate of advance – which is not a given.

Zelensky’s compromise would also require Russian troops to leave other areas of Ukrainian territory where they maintain a limited presence, including the Kharkiv and Sumy region in the north, Dnipropetrovsk in the east and Myokolaiv in the south.

Without progress in Donetsk, the chances of reaching a peace agreement seem unrealistic, but a Russian compromise may not be ruled out.

Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov recently said: “It is entirely possible that there will be no troops.” [in Donbas]Russian or Ukrainian”, although he was adamant that the territory would be part of the Russian Federation.

Since March 2022, Russia has occupied Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, at Enerhodar, on the banks of the Dnipro River. But the six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant do not produce electricity – they have all been shut down cold for more than three years – and external energy supplied by Ukraine allows the plant to continue operating to avoid a meltdown.

To restart, substantial investments are needed, including to rebuild the destroyed Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which was used to provide cooling water to the power plant.

Ukraine believes that the zone should also be demilitarized and transformed into a free economic zone.

The American proposal, according to Zelensky, is for the United States to run the plant as a joint venture with Russia and Ukraine. kyiv said that was unrealistic and that instead the United States and Ukraine could jointly manage the situation 50-50, with the United States deciding where half the energy goes – and implicitly to Russia.

Ukraine’s problem is that Russia will not let it go and the head of Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom, Alexei Likachev, stressed that only one entity – Russia – can manage it and ensure its security.

He raised the possibility that Ukraine could use the electricity produced by the plant within the framework of international cooperation.

A compromise on this issue may not be insurmountable, but it would require a certain level of trust between two neighboring states where none exists.

It’s hard to imagine meaningful progress on key sticking points when there is so little trust.

When Trump suggested this week that Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed…including by providing energy…at very low prices,” Zelensky clearly didn’t believe a word of it – he doesn’t consider Putin serious about peace.

“I don’t trust the Russians and… I don’t trust Putin, and he doesn’t want success for Ukraine,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Russia has also shown little confidence in kyiv, accusing Ukrainian forces of targeting a Putin residence in the Novgorod region with drones, although it has provided no evidence of the attack.

Ukraine denies this happened and believes it is a Russian pretext for further Russian strikes on government buildings in kyiv.

kyiv has asked US and European leaders for security guarantees to ensure a NATO-style response in the event of another Russian attack. Ukraine also seeks to maintain an 800,000-strong army.

Although the United States and Europe could sign a security agreement, Russia will not accept European troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s financial losses have been estimated at $800 billion (£600 billion). Another key question is therefore to what extent Russia will contribute. The United States is discussing a joint investment fund with Europe, and Russia has assets worth 210 billion euros in Europe that could also be used, although Moscow has so far refused to allow it.

Russia also rejects Ukraine’s NATO membership. This may not be much of a sticking point, as it is unlikely to happen, but it is part of Ukraine’s constitution, so it will be difficult to find an agreement.

Membership in the European Union is also a potential sticking point, perhaps less for Russia than for countries ahead of Ukraine in the queue to join the EU. Few believe that this will happen very soon.

The Ukrainian leader cited opinion polls that suggest 87% of Ukrainians want peace, while 85% of them reject withdrawal from Donbass.

He therefore believes that no decision on the fate of Donetsk or the broader 20-point plan can be taken without a popular vote and a 60-day ceasefire to prepare for it: “A referendum is the way to accept it or not to accept it.”

It also poses a potential sticking point, as the Kremlin says a temporary ceasefire would only prolong the conflict and lead to a resumption of hostilities – and Trump has said he understands Putin’s position.

But without such a vote, Zelensky believes that an agreement would have no validity, which only adds to the list of thorny issues to be resolved.