What happens next in Venezuela? Regime foundations remain in place after Maduro’s capture

President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak later Saturday, but U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Maduro, who is currently aboard a navy ship en route to the United States, will be charged with narcoterrorism following his indictment in New York.

“I really want to emphasize here that it’s very early. We don’t understand what the plan might be for a possible transition,” Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, told CNN. “But for the moment, everything indicates that the base of the regime, everything that held the Maduro government together, remains in place.”

In particular, she pointed out that the Minister of Defense and the Minister of the Interior are hardliners and still seem to remain in power at the moment.

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, seen as Maduro’s henchman, reportedly appeared on state television wearing a bulletproof vest and looked defiant.

He said the government had everything under control, while calling on the army and police to maintain order. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez also called on regime supporters to take to the streets.

According to Dickinson, the key immediate questions are who controls critical infrastructure and what the security conditions are on the ground.

This will provide crucial clues about how the situation is developing. But for now, Maduro’s top lieutenants are still in charge.

“So Maduro’s removal has not necessarily changed the fundamental equation of control,” Dickinson said.

Certainly some segments of the Venezuelan population will feel relief as Maduro led an oppressive government, she said.

And although the country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, years of sanctions and mismanagement have sent the economy into free fall.

“Venezuela is living day by day. We are talking about a situation of shortage of resources and families who sometimes only have to eat twice a day,” Dickinson added. “And the way the government has consolidated its power is actually through this redistribution of limited resources, distributing both food but also just basic necessities to its allies, while once again suppressing any attempts at resistance. »

At the same time, international reaction to Trump’s impeachment of Maduro has been mixed. Few Latin American governments have recognized Maduro’s 2024 re-election, but Mexico said the U.S. military action violated international law. However, Trump ally and Argentine President Javier Milei welcomed the move.

Maduro’s supporters China, Russia and Iran condemned his arrest, while the European Union’s top diplomat was cautious, pointing out that the EU has said Maduro lacks legitimacy while calling for a peaceful transition.

“In all circumstances, the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations must be respected. We call for restraint”, Kaja Kallas posted on.