Trump’s decision to oust Maduro carries many risks

The United States might want many of its enemies out of power. It generally does not send the military to physically expel them.

Venezuela’s rude awakening took two forms.

Its inhabitants were suddenly awakened by the sound of deafening booms: the noise of its capital Caracas attacked by American strikes targeting military infrastructure.

His government has now awakened from any illusion that US military intervention or regime change was only a distant threat.

US President Donald Trump announced that his leader, Nicolás Maduro, had been captured and expelled from the country. He now faces trial in the United States on weapons and drug charges.

The United States has not carried out such direct military intervention in Latin America since its 1989 invasion of Panama to remove then-military ruler Manuel Noriega.

Then as now, Washington viewed the measure as part of a broader crackdown on drug trafficking and crime.

The United States has also long accused Maduro of running a criminal trafficking organization, which he categorically denies. He designated as a foreign terrorist group the “Cartel de los Soles,” a name the United States uses to describe a group of elites in Venezuela that it says orchestrate illegal activities like drug trafficking and illegal mining.

For years, Maduro’s government has been accused of human rights violations.

In 2020, United Nations investigators said his government committed “gross violations” amounting to crimes against humanity, such as extrajudicial killings, torture, violence and disappearances – and that Maduro and other senior officials were involved.

Human rights organizations have documented hundreds of political prisoners in the country, some detained following anti-government protests.

This latest operation, which strikes directly inside a sovereign capital, marks a spectacular escalation of American involvement in the region.

Maduro’s forced removal will be hailed as a major victory by some of the most hawkish figures in the U.S. administration, many of whom have argued that only direct intervention could force Maduro from power.

Washington has not recognized him as the country’s president since the 2024 elections. The opposition published electronic voting results after the vote, which it says proves that it, and not Maduro, won the election.

The result was deemed neither free nor fair by international election observers. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was not allowed to appear.

But for the Venezuelan government, this intervention confirms what it has long claimed: that Washington’s ultimate goal is regime change.

Venezuela has also accused the United States of wanting to “steal” its oil reserves, the world’s largest, and other resources – an allegation it said proved justified after the United States seized at least two oil tankers off the coast.

The strikes and capture come after months of US military escalation in the region.

The United States has sent its largest military deployment in decades to the region, including warplanes, thousands of troops, helicopters and the world’s largest warship. It has carried out dozens of strikes against small suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 110 people.

Any remaining doubts that these operations were at least partly about regime change have now been dispelled by today’s actions.

What remains deeply unclear is the sequence of events in Venezuela itself.

The United States would clearly like the Venezuelan opposition, with which it is allied, to take power – potentially led by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, or by the opposition candidate in the 2024 elections, Edmundo Gonzalez.

However, even some vocal Maduro critics warn that this would not be simple given the government’s grip on power in the country.

It controls the judiciary, the Supreme Court and the army – and aligns itself with heavily armed paramilitaries known as “colectivos”.

Some fear that U.S. intervention could trigger violent fragmentation and a protracted power struggle. Even those who dislike Maduro and want him gone are wary of U.S. intervention as a means — remembering decades of U.S.-backed coups and regime changes in Latin America in the 20th century.

The opposition itself is also divided into several parts – not all of them support a transition to Machado or his support for Trump.

It is unclear what the United States’ next move will be.

Will he try to push for new elections? Will he try to remove other senior government or military officials and force them to appear before the American justice system?

As for Trump, his administration has become increasingly muscular in the region, with Argentina’s financial bailout, tariffs imposed on Brazil in an attempt to influence the coup trial of Trump ally and former right-wing Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, and now the military intervention in Venezuela.

It now benefits from the increased number of allies in the region – as the continent has shifted to the right in recent elections, notably in Ecuador, Argentina and Chile. But even though Maduro has few allies in the region, there are still major powers like Brazil and Colombia that do not support U.S. military intervention.

And some members of Trump’s MAGA base in the United States are also not happy with his increasing interventionism after promising to put “America first.”

For Maduro’s closest allies, Saturday’s events raise pressing questions and fears about their own futures.

Many may not wish to give up the fight or allow a transition unless they feel that they themselves could benefit from some sort of protection or comfort from persecution.