Crude prices fall as Maduro overthrow sparks uncertainty over Venezuela

Crude oil prices fell slightly Sunday, The Trump administration’s overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro has sowed deep uncertainty over oil-rich Venezuela.

American crude oil fell 31 cents, or 0.54%, to $57.01 a barrel. Brent, world reference fell 22 cents, or 0.36%, to $60.53 a barrel.

President Donald Trump made clear Saturday that U.S. investment in Venezuela’s oil sector was a key goal of the regime change operation that toppled Maduro.

“We’re going to ask our very large American oil companies – the largest in the world – to step in, spend billions of dollars, repair badly damaged infrastructure, oil infrastructure,” he added. Trump said at a press conference from his home at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.

The president said Saturday that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in effect.

Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, or about 17 percent of the world’s total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Caracas produced about 3.5 million barrels per day at its peak in the late 1990s, but production has declined significantly since then, according to energy consultancy Kpler. The South American nation currently produces around 800,000 bpd, according to Kpler data.

Chevron is the only major American oil company operating in Venezuela. It exported around 140,000 b/d at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler.

The impact of Maduro’s overthrow on oil prices is ambiguous in the short term, said Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs. Production could increase slightly if a U.S.-backed government is installed and the Trump administration lifts sanctions on Venezuela, Struveyn told clients in a note Sunday.

But Maduro’s ouster could also lead to short-term supply disruptions, the analyst said. In the long term, U.S. investments that boost Venezuelan production would put downward pressure on oil prices, Struvyven said. The resumption of production, however, will probably be gradual and partial, he added.

Oil executives operating in Venezuela say it will cost $10 billion a year to turn around production and that a stable security environment is key to returning production to historic levels, said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Full sanctions relief could bring back production by several hundred thousand barrels over a 12-month period if there is an orderly transition of power, Croft told clients in a Saturday note.

“However, all bets are off in a chaotic power change scenario like what happened in Libya or Iraq,” she said.