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Washington, DC – Hours after the United States announced kidnapping of the Venezuelan president Nicolas MaduroIsraeli politician Yair Lapid warned Tehran: “The Iranian regime should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela. »
Maduro’s forced removal from power came less than a week after US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened to launch new strikes against Iran.
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Although tensions between Washington and Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, analysts say Trump’s decision against Maduro raises the prospect of war with Iran.
“New anarchy makes everything less stable and war more likely,” said Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC).
“Whether Trump is passionate about “surgical” regime change or giving Netanyahu the American imprimatur for similar actions, it is hard not to see how this provides momentum to the many actors pushing for a resumption of war with Iran. »
He added that Maduro’s removal could prompt Iran “to do something that triggers military action,” including developing its own military deterrent or preempting the United States or the United States. Israeli strikes.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also said U.S. actions in Venezuela show Trump’s maximalist goals, further dimming the chances for diplomacy.
“What I see and what I hear from Tehran is that they are not interested in negotiating with the Trump administration in the same way that this administration is signaling that it wants total surrender,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
“So there is not much chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then paves the way for the opposite path, which is conflict. Right now, Israel, Iran and the United States are on the path to potential conflict.”
Abdi echoed this assessment. “This action reinforces all doubts and suspicions about American intentions and gives further credence to those in Iran who say that engaging the United States is unnecessary and [that] developing a nuclear deterrent is vital,” he told Al Jazeera.
Iran-Venezuela Alliance
The U.S. raid that kidnapped Maduro and brought him to the United States came after months of intensified rhetoric by Trump against the Venezuelan government.
US officials have accused Maduro of running an anti-drug organization, and Trump and his aides have been accused of argue more and more that Washington has a right to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also highlighted Maduro’s ties to Iran, accusing Caracas, without evidence, of providing the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah with a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
Maduro is a close ally of Iran, and both heavily sanctioned The countries have been working to deepen their trade relations, the value of which is estimated at several billion dollars.
Thus, with the departure of Maduro, Iran’s small network of allies could further shrink, after the fall of leader Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian government was quick to condemn the US attack on Venezuela, calling on the United Nations to intervene and end the “illegal aggression.”
“The US military aggression against an independent UN member state represents a serious violation of regional and international peace and security,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
“Its consequences will affect the entire international system and further expose the order based on the United Nations Charter to erosion and destruction. »
On Saturday, Rubio suggested that Maduro’s kidnapping carried a message for all of Washington’s rivals in the Trump era.
“When he tells you he’s going to do something, when he tells you he’s going to solve a problem, he means it,” America’s top diplomat told reporters.
But the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote on social media. “We will bring the enemy to its knees. »
Trump’s threats
Last week, Trump hosted Netanyahu in Florida and threatened to bomb Iran again if the country rebuilds its missile or nuclear programs.
“Now I hear that Iran is trying to rebuild itself, and if that’s the case, we’re going to have to take them down,” Trump said. “We’re going to knock them down. We’re going to knock them out.”
Israel launched a war against Iran in June, killing the country’s top military commanders, several nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians.
The United States joined the attack by bombing Iran’s three main nuclear sites.
While Trump has often reiterated that the US strikes “wiped out” Iran’s nuclear program and celebrated the war as a successthe Iranian system of government survived the onslaught.
Tehran responded with barrages of hundreds of rockets against Israel, dozens of which penetrated the country’s multi-layered air defenses, and Iranian forces were able to continue firing until the final moments of the war, before the ceasefire took effect.
Some critics say regime change was and remains Israel’s goal in Iran, and Trump increasingly appears to embrace that goal.
On Friday, Trump warned that the United States was “locked and loaded” and ready to attack Iran if the Iranian government kills protesters amid ongoing but sporadic anti-government protests across the country.
He renewed the same threat on Sunday evening. “If they start killing people like they have done in the past, I think they will be hit very hard by the United States,” the US president said.
So, could the United States carry out a Venezuela-style beheading of the Iranian government in Iran?
NIAC’s Abdi pointed out that Israel has previously tried to kill the country’s top leaders, including the president. Massoud Pezeshkianin June.
Trump has also repeatedly threatened Khamenei with assassination, and Israeli officials have confirmed this. that they were looking for “eliminate” the supreme leader during the war.
“Iranian officials said they had accordingly put plans in place so that the killing or removal of senior leaders would not cripple or overthrow the regime,” Abdi said.
“It would be much more complicated to conduct a ‘snatch and seize’ operation against Iran, given Iran’s ability to retaliate against U.S. interests and personnel. »
Venezuela without Maduro
Even in Venezuela, Maduro’s ouster has not resulted in a collapse of the regime, at least for now.
On Sunday, the vice president Delcy Rodrigueznow interim president of Venezuela, stressed that Maduro remained the country’s sole leader and condemned the U.S. attack.
She also suggested Israel was involved in the kidnapping of Maduro, a vocal critic of the US ally.
“Governments around the world are shocked that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has become the victim and target of an attack of this nature, which undoubtedly has Zionist overtones,” Rodriguez said.
Trump responded by threatening the interim Venezuelan president, telling The Atlantic magazine that she would pay “a very high price, probably higher than Maduro’s” if she did not acquiesce to US demands.
So the US president’s plans to “rule” Venezuela and take its oil are not yet complete and will likely require more military action.
“I doubt Venezuela could be a ‘one and done’ or ‘rapid entry and exit’ situation, which is Trump’s preferred model. His hallmark is that he engages in rapid shows of force, not forever wars,” Mortazavi said.
She cited the rapid operations ordered by Trump, including the assassination of the leader of ISIL (ISIS). Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020 and the attack on Iranian nuclear sites in June.
“Most Americans are tired of forever wars, especially in the Middle East. So the Trump administration knows it cannot sell more forever wars to the Americans,” Mortazavi said.
But Trump has already raised the prospect of a ground invasion of Venezuela.
“We are not afraid of the troops on the ground,” he said. “We don’t mind saying it, but we’re going to make sure this country runs smoothly. We’re not doing it in vain.”
Abdi said long-term U.S. involvement in Venezuela could indirectly avoid war with Iran.
“It is also possible that the United States will become bogged down in the ‘management’ of Venezuela and will not have the capacity to lead, or support Israel in, launching the next war against Iran,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Iran was next on the menu after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, and we know what happened there, and Trump may not. I want to pronounce “Mission accomplished” for now.
The oil question
Yet some critics — including Republican U.S. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene — have argued that if the United States succeeds in controlling Venezuela’s oil resources, it would be able to offset energy market disruptions resulting from a possible war with Iran.
“The next obvious observation is that by removing Maduro, it is a clear move to control Venezuelan oil supplies that will ensure stability for the next obvious war of regime change in Iran,” Greene wrote on X on Saturday.
About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuzthat Iran could push to close in the event of all-out war.
Abdi said Venezuelan oil “could theoretically provide some cushion” to the Gulf region’s loss of exports.
“But that would mean a lot of things would go well for the United States in Venezuela, and it’s probably way too early to make that judgment,” he said.
