Can Maduro’s loyal lieutenant now work for Trump?

Many of those who listened to U.S. President Donald Trump’s news conference Saturday were likely hoping to hear dramatic details about how U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a pre-dawn raid.

But an arguably more surprising moment came when Trump announced that, now that Maduro was in custody, the United States would “run” Venezuela “until we can make a safe, appropriate, and wise transition.”

In another unexpected development, he added that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who he said was “basically willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”

However, Rodríguez appeared uncooperative during her own press conference later, where she denounced Maduro’s detention as kidnapping and stressed that Venezuela would not become a colony.

Faced with these mixed messages, many are wondering who is now in charge in Venezuela.

According to the Venezuelan constitution, it is the responsibility of the vice president to take over in the absence of the president.

So, at first glance, the Venezuelan Supreme Court’s ruling that Delcy Rodríguez was the country’s interim president seems like a logical step.

But most Venezuela watchers expected the immediate consequences of U.S. intervention to be different.

The United States – and many other countries – have not recognized Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president, after he denounced the 2024 elections as rigged.

Maduro was declared president by Venezuela’s Electoral Council (CNE), a body dominated by government loyalists.

But the CNE never produced detailed vote tallies to support its claims, and copies of vote tallies collected by the opposition and reviewed by the Carter Center suggested that the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, had won by a landslide.

This is why the United States and dozens of other countries have recognized González as president-elect.

González, a little-known former diplomat, had the support of popular opposition leader María Corina Machado, whom he replaced on the ballot after Maduro government officials barred him from running in the election.

As security forces cracked down on opposition in the aftermath of the election, González went into exile in Spain and Machado hid in Venezuela.

Over the past 18 months, they have urged Maduro to resign and lobbied for international support for their cause, including from the United States.

Machado’s notoriety was reinforced by his winning the Nobel Peace Prize for “his struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy” in Venezuela.

Following the publicity and recognition she received after undertaking a risky journey from her hideout in Venezuela to Oslo to accept the award, many assumed that any post-Maduro scenario would see her return to her homeland to take the reins of power alongside Edmundo González.

Machado herself posted a letter on social media after Maduro’s capture, declaring that “the time for freedom has arrived.”

“Today we are ready to enforce our mandate and take power,” she wrote.

But the US president stunned journalists when he said Machado had neither the “support nor the respect” to lead the country.

Trump said his team did not speak to Machado after the U.S. strikes, but that Marco Rubio spoke to Delcy Rodríguez.

Trump’s next remark could provide the answer to why the Trump administration is now Maduro’s loyal lieutenant — at least for now.

Trump quoted Rodríguez as saying “we’ll do what you want,” adding “she really has no choice.”

While Maduro’s inner circle still appears to be in power in Venezuela, U.S. officials might have considered that the smoothest transition would be ensured by handing over to a member of the current government.

“They think they can set up a trusteeship-like arrangement instead of going out there and taking over the day-to-day operations of the country,” said Mara Rudman, a former national security official who worked in the Clinton and Obama administrations. She described this approach as unprecedented in modern times.

During his press conference, President Trump said the United States was “prepared to launch a second, much larger attack if necessary,” which appears to explain why he believes Delcy Rodríguez has no choice but to carry out US orders.

The fact that Rodríguez was seen surrounded by some of the most powerful men in Maduro’s inner circle hours after the president was arrested and flown out of the country seems to suggest that she has won their support as well.

At his side were his brother Jorge Rodríguez, President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, Domingo Hernández Lárez, among others.

That will have pleased U.S. officials worried that Maduro’s capture could lead to a potentially destabilizing battle for control within his inner circle.

But the message Delcy Rodríguez had for the United States would have been less pleasant to American ears.

She insisted that “there is only one president in Venezuela, and his name is Nicolás Maduro” and called his capture a “kidnapping.”

“We will never again be the colony of any empire,” she insisted, promising to “defend” Venezuela.

While she certainly didn’t look like the person Trump had described as “ready to obey orders from the United States,” there was speculation that she might have struck a nationalist note to keep Maduro’s most loyal supporters on board.

Asked about Trump’s support for Rodríguez and his remarks, Marco Rubio told CBS on Sunday that the United States would make an assessment based on his actions, not his words.

“Do I know what decisions people are going to make? I don’t know,” he added, apparently implying that he was not as sure about Rodríguez’s willingness to work with the United States as Trump was.

What he absolutely insisted on was the United States’ willingness to put pressure on Rodríguez’s interim government.

“I know that if they do not make the right decisions, the United States will retain multiple levers to ensure that our interests are protected, and that includes, among other things, the oil quarantine in place,” he said.

In an interview with ABC, Rubio also appeared to suggest that new elections should be held in Venezuela.

“The government will be formed through a transition period and real elections, which they haven’t had,” he told This Week.

He also called for “realism”, saying that new elections would take time: “Everyone is wondering why, 24 hours after the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, no elections are planned for tomorrow? It’s absurd.”

John Bolton, who worked on plans to remove Venezuela’s president when he was national security adviser during Trump’s first term, praised the U.S. military operation and Maduro’s capture.

However, the prominent Trump critic told the BBC that Rodriguez was unlikely to kneel to the United States, especially as the regime still enjoys support from China, Russia and Cuba.

“The rational thing to do here is to overthrow what’s left of the Maduro regime and put the opposition in power pending free and fair elections. They have people capable of running an interim administration while elections are held.”

We are talking about new elections this will undoubtedly disappoint not only María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, but also many Venezuelans who voted for them and who insisted they wanted those votes honored.

The opposition has long insisted that free and fair elections are not possible as long as the main institutions involved in organizing them are staffed by Maduro loyalists. Reform of these organizations will take time.

In the short term, Venezuela therefore seems likely to be governed by Delcy Rodríguez and Maduro’s entourage – as long as they meet the expectations of the Trump administration.

How long this situation lasts will depend on Rodríguez’s ability to strike a balance between meeting Trump’s demands and Maduro’s core interests.

She could soon find herself between a rock and a hard place.