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Bitcoin’s decisive breakout above $92,000 to start 2026 was accompanied by a surge in activity from large holders, signaling a shift in market participation even as analysts forecast a volatile but limited quarter ahead.
The leading crypto is up 6.3% over the week and 1.7% over the past day, according to CoinGecko data. According to CoinGlass data, approximately $255 million in leveraged positions were liquidated due to Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend, suggesting increased speculative activity.
Bitcoin The rally follows a limited December and aligns with a notable change in FX flow patterns. The average Bitcoin deposit size on Binance jumped to 21.7 BTC per transaction in December 2025, a 34-fold increase from the average of 0.86 BTC in early January 2024, according to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“The sharp increase in average Bitcoin flows to Binance suggests that large holders are becoming more active again, which is generally an early sign of a resumption of speculation rather than retail-driven noise,” said Wenny Cai, COO of SynFutures. Decrypt.
This new speculation comes amid a significant macroeconomic event involving a U.S. military. operation who captured the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. The event injected a “strategic framework” into the market, according to Monday’s note from Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital.
Analysts pointed to discussions around potential Bitcoin reserves in Venezuela and the disinflationary impulse resulting from falling oil prices as factors aligning the crypto with broader risk assets, suggesting a potential “regime change.”
US Strike in Venezuela Puts Bitcoin in Focus as Oil Falls
Other analysts call for caution, seeing geopolitical developments as a source of uncertainty.
“Although the incident in Venezuela does not have a direct impact on crypto prices, it does make the geopolitical situation a little more precarious,” said Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan. Decrypt. He warned that the ripple effects of the move “could trigger fear events that impact markets.”
Nonetheless, the consensus outlook for early 2026 remains measured, with analysts viewing the current move as a recalibration rather than the start of a no-holds-barred recovery, with major catalysts still on the horizon.
“What we are seeing looks more like a recalibration after weeks of quiet positioning, where traders are testing upside potential rather than engaging aggressively,” Cai said. She expects Bitcoin to “remain limited but volatile” in the first quarter, with direction dependent on the re-engagement of ETFs and institutional strategies.
