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The coalition’s watchword Tuesday at the voluntary meeting on Ukraine in Paris appears to be: expect the unexpected.
That was clearly the mood as leaders from around 30 countries, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, gathered in the French capital.
As European leaders tried to understand the implications that U.S. military action in Venezuela would have on efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine, Carney was dealing with the political fallout from Chrystia Freeland’s acceptance of an advisory role to the Ukrainian government while she was still a member of Parliament.
The former minister will be a special, unpaid economic advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. She was Canada’s envoy to Ukraine for reconstruction, but she resigned from her post and will soon leave as an MP.
But by far the capture and planned prosecution of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores under US law is the event that has shaken European leaders on the eve of discussing specific security guarantees for Ukraine.
WATCH | Venezuela and Trump’s security strategy:
The capture of Nicolas Maduro by US forces and President Donald Trump’s plan to reinvigorate Venezuela’s oil industry could be seen as a page in his new national security strategy. CBC’s Eli Glasner explains the goal of the strategy to dominate the Western Hemisphere and what it could mean for Canada and the world.
Adding to this unease, US President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to annex Greenland to Denmark in an interview with The Atlantic.
“I have to say this very directly to the United States: it makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the United States to take Greenland,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded on social media.
“I therefore strongly urge the United States to end the threats against a historically close ally and against another country and another people, who have made it very clear that they are not for sale.”
Trump told reporters on Air Force One that European leaders know the United States needs Greenland.
However, a number of Nordic countries, including Finland, have expressed support for Denmark’s continued control of the Arctic territory.
A measured response
Carney is expected to meet separately with Frederiksen and Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the sidelines of the meeting in Ukraine.
But European Union leaders are unlikely to want to address the Venezuela issue directly in the coming days, for fear of angering Trump and his delegates in Paris — and perhaps jeopardizing U.S. support for the coalition and Ukraine.
Carney took a measured response to Maduro’s arrest, emphasizing that Canada had not recognized Maduro’s “brutally oppressive and criminal regime” since the 2018 elections that many in the international community say were stolen from the opposition.
Carney hailed “the opportunity for freedom, democracy, peace and prosperity for the Venezuelan people,” who have the “sovereign right to decide and build their own future in a peaceful and democratic society.”
However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on several US political broadcasts on Sunday that the transition to democracy was on hold for now and that Washington would work with Maduro’s subordinates. He said the reality is that many Venezuelan opposition figures have fled the country and it will take time to reestablish their presence.
Both Trump and Rubio invoked the Monroe Doctrine: or the “Donroe Doctrine,” as Trump now calls it – which asserts that Washington has the right to exercise authority over the Western Hemisphere.
WATCH | UN Security Council on Maduro arrest:
The 15-member United Nations Security Council met at U.N. headquarters in New York just hours before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared in a Manhattan federal court on drug charges including narcoterrorism conspiracy. Most member countries explicitly condemned the U.S. actions, and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a statement read by U.N. political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo, said: “I am deeply concerned about the possible intensification of instability in the country. »
Trump, in his remarks on Greenland, claimed that Russian and Chinese ships were circling the island territory.
Russia used similar logic to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
It remains an open question whether Trump’s actions in Venezuela, which has one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, will further embolden Moscow.
A U.S. defense expert said he believes there is momentum for a ceasefire in Ukraine, regardless of last weekend’s events.
“Russia has a reason to pause the fighting right now and re-equip its forces,” said Matt Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut and a former instructor at the U.S. Army War College.
“It took enormous losses in personnel and equipment to replace them. And that’s why he must finally come to the negotiating table or win the war quickly.”
Coalition leaders hope to craft specific security guarantees for Ukraine that would deter Russia from simply using the ceasefire as a break.
Leaders will also focus on reconstruction.
