Europe tries to restart Ukraine talks as attention turns to Venezuela

European leaders are meeting in Paris on Tuesday to try to revive interest in a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine, just as Washington and the world turn their attention to the crisis in Venezuela.

The U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and their subsequent transfer to the United States on criminal charges has attracted global media attention, increasing the risk that Washington’s interest in a Ukraine peace deal will wane.

European officials want to revive the momentum seen in pre-Christmas negotiations between the United States and their Ukrainian and Russian counterparts, which aimed to reach agreement around a 20-point peace plan to end nearly four years of fighting.

The “Coalition of the Willing” – a group of countries that say they are ready to provide post-war security guarantees and peacekeeping forces to Ukraine – is expected to meet in the French capital to discuss the elements of the peace plan that have been agreed so far, as well as the remaining obstacles to a deal, namely security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial concessions demanded by Moscow.

Russia rejects the idea of ​​European countries providing security guarantees to kyiv or deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, and wants Ukraine to cede its eastern Donbass region to Moscow. Ukraine has said it is ready to abandon its NATO membership ambitions but needs guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.

Concern was already widespread in Europe that US President Donald Trump might lose interest in Ukraine and the pursuit of a peace deal, given its changing nature and his previous uncertainties over the end of the war, particularly over whether Ukraine can hope to emerge from the war with its territorial integrity intact.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived at the Elysée on Tuesday for talks that will also include European leaders, senior European Commission officials and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would not attend due to the crisis in Venezuela.

Commenting on the meeting in Paris, Emily Thornberry, chair of the UK’s foreign affairs select committee, told CNBC that US involvement remained vital.

“Today’s meeting is supposed to be about the future of Ukraine, which is extremely important, and we need American security guarantees because what we don’t want is for there to be a peace that only lasts a few months and when we’re not looking, the Russians come into Ukraine and take over,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“The only way to achieve a just and lasting peace is to involve the Americans. We are not asking for troops on the ground, we are asking for a guarantee of security that makes sense,” she added.

Analysts have warned that Trump’s capture of Maduro does not bode well for Ukraine, not only because it is a significant distraction for Washington, but also because it sends a message to Moscow that the removal of a rival national leader, accused of criminality, is permissible — and particularly if that leader is seen as part of a superpower’s geopolitical “sphere of influence.”

Moscow frequently calls Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “criminal” without presenting evidence to support its accusations.