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This is the largest US military intervention in Latin America since the Invasion of Panama in 1989, and it is the most vigorous action to achieve regime change since its 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Saturday, the US strikes Venezuela with what he described as a “full-scale strike” and captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, accusing them of participating in a narco-terrorist plot.
This came after months of increased pressure from Washington, notably intercept tankers off the coast of Venezuela and targeting smaller boats carrying drugs.
Now that we are at a crisis point — with the The United Nations says US President Donald Trump’s weekend invasion contravened its charter and with Maduro appear in a US court – you may be wondering how we got here.
“I have to say that after years and years of seeing the damage Nicolás Maduro did to his country… there is certainly a huge sense of relief that he is gone, and hope for a better Venezuela that is beginning,” he added. Former Canadian Ambassador to Venezuela, Ben Rowswell, told CBC News Network this weekend.
“But [it’s] a terrible, terrible way to bring about this change. »
So how did Venezuela collapse? Why is Trump involved now? And what happens next?
Let’s break it down.
WATCH | The Reality of Trump’s Venezuela Oil Plan:
US President Donald Trump wants to use American companies to move oil to Venezuela and make everyone richer, but it’s probably not as easy as it seems. CBC’s Eli Glasner explains the reality of Trump’s plan and how long it could take to increase oil production.
The perils of a “petro-state”
The first thing you need to understand is that Venezuela has the largest estimated oil reserves in the world, but its crude production remains at a fraction of its capacity due to decades of mismanagement, lack of investment and US sanctions.
On paper, Venezuela “should be one of the greatest energy powers in the world”, notes Forbes Magazineand yet it “spent more than a decade in economic collapse.”
What happened is a warning about the risks of becoming a petrostate, which describes a government heavily dependent on fossil fuel revenues, with concentrated power and widespread corruption, he says. the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank.
Venezuela holds about 17% of global reserves, or 303 billion barrels, ahead of Saudi Arabia, according to the London-based Energy Institute.
Its reserves consist mainly of heavy oil in the Orinoco region of central Venezuela, making its crude expensive to produce but technically relatively simple, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a semi-independent agency under the U.S. Department of Energy.
In the mid-2000s, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez accelerated the nationalization of its industries by imposing punitive contracts on foreign oil companies, and big names like the American company Exxon Mobil left the country.
When oil prices fell below US$30 per barrel in 2016, Venezuela entered an economic and political spiral, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. At the same time, its difficulties in electricity production have repeatedly hampered mining and oil operations, explains Reuters.
The country produced up to 3.5 million barrels of crude per day in the 1970s, which represented more than seven percent of global oil production at the time, according to Reuters. Production fell below two million bpd during the 2010s and averaged 1.1 million bpd last year, just 1% of global production.
The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan individuals and entities since 2005, according to the EIA, but began granting exemptions in 2022.
Maduro’s rule and economic collapse
Nicolás Maduro became president of Venezuela in 2013 after his predecessor Hugo Chávez., asked his supporters to vote for Maduro after his death.
Like the Associated Press As Maduro’s presidency explains, it has been marked by a complex social, political and economic crisis that has pushed millions into poverty, pushed more than 7.7 million Venezuelans to emigrate and imprisoned thousands of real or perceived opponents of the government, where many were tortured, some under his leadership.
His rule has become best known for allegedly rigged elections, food shortages and rights abuses, including the harsh crackdown on protests in 2014 and 2017.
UUnder Maduro’s leadership, Venezuela’s economy fell 71 percent between 2012 and 2020, while inflation exceeded 130,000 percent. At one point, oil production fell to less than 400,000 barrels per day.
WATCH | From 2017, violence in Venezuela:
Tensions in Venezuela continue to simmer after a failed military insurgency and subsequent protests, as political chaos and a crumbling economy ravage the country.
IInflation and severe shortages of food and medicine have affected Venezuelans across the country. Entire families starved to death and began migrating on foot to neighboring countries. Those who remained queued for hours to buy rice, beans and other necessities. Some fought in the streets for flour.
Maduro’s government has been subject to aggressive sanctions by the United States and other powers. In 2020, Washington indicted him on corruption and other charges. Maduro has rejected these accusations.
He took an oath for third term in January 2025 following elections widely condemned by international observers and the opposition as fraudulent. Thousands of people protesting against the government’s declaration of victory were imprisoned.
American pressure and oil ambitions
Maduro’s arrest was the culmination of months of increased US pressure on different fronts.
Since September, U.S. forces have killed more than 100 people in at least 30 strikes against suspected drug-trafficking boats from Venezuela in the Caribbean and Pacific, leadingwhatever the experts likely violated U.S. and international law.
As CBC News previously reported, Trump’s pressure campaign on Maduro began with the stated goal of stemming the flow of illegal drugs, but it has morphed into something more amorphous.
In December, Trump announced a “blockade” of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This escalation came after U.S. forces seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuelaan unusual decision which follows a strengthening of military forces in the region. They captured more tankers later in the month.
Trump claimed Venezuela was using oil to finance drug trafficking and other crimes and pledged to step up the buildup of its military.
PICTURES | Scenes from Venezuela after the American raid:
Saturday, you.S. Special forces invaded Caracas by helicopter, broke Maduro’s security cordon and dragged him from the threshold of a secure room.
On Sunday, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that American oil companies will return Venezuela and rebuild the sector’s infrastructure. Later, he told reporters, “we’re going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago.”
“We will run it properly, we will run it professionally, we will have the biggest oil companies in the world investing billions and billions of dollars in it.”
But Roxanna Vigil, international affairs researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CBC News It will take years to reverse the long decline of Venezuela’s oil sector, and it is unclear how the Trump administration plans to move forward.
“I have great concerns about the outcome of events” » said Vigil.
WATCH | What’s next for Venezuela?
Roxanna Vigil, international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says she is concerned about what’s happening in Venezuela after the United States captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, early Saturday. Vigil says it will take years to reverse the long decline of Venezuela’s oil sector and that it is unclear how the Trump administration plans to move forward.
