The 28 Years Later trilogy needs The Temple of Bones to deliver at the box office

The start of January is usually pretty dead at the box office, save for the leftovers from December. This year, however, Sony Pictures is expected to potentially deliver the first truly major film of 2026 when “28 Years Later: The Temple of Bones” hits theaters later this month. Slated for the MLK setting, the sequel to last year’s “28 Years Later” will have a four-day money-raising weekend as the first real movie event of the year. The question is: can it match what its predecessor did last summer and justify the studio’s plans for a full trilogy?

For now, it’s unclear, but success is by no means a certainty, as current projections attest. “The Bone Temple” is currently on track to gross $18 million to $28 million domestically in its opening weekend, according to Box office theory. That’s right in line with other tracking services, which bring in $20 million or more over a full four-day weekend (per Deadline). By comparison, “28 Years Later” Opens to $30 Million at the Domestic Box Office en route to a possible worldwide take of $151.3 million.

The distribution of the first film was slightly in favor of international audiences, with more than 53% of ticket sales, or $80.8 million, coming from abroad. This is important when looking at these initial screenings since the sequel is lagging behind its predecessor. While numbers like this aren’t a death sentence for a film with a reported budget of $60 million, it’s not a good sign either.

Nia DaCosta (2021’s “Candyman,” “The Marvels”) is in the director’s chair for this sequel, with “28 Days Later” and “28 Years Later” director Danny Boyle producing alongside returning writer Alex Garland. Boyle and Garland also intend to work on the planned third installment.

“The Temple of Bones” sees Dr. Kelson (Ralph Fiennes) from “28 Years Later” make a discovery that could change the world. Meanwhile, young Spike (Alfie Williams)’s encounter with Jimmy Crystal (Jack O’Connell) in the previous film leads him into a new nightmare from which he cannot escape. The cast also includes Erin Kellyman (“Solo: A Star Wars Story”), Emma Laird (“The Brutalist”) and Chi Lewis-Parry (“The Running Man”).

With a gross of $151.3 million on a budget of $60 million, “28 Years Later” was a success, but unrestrained. Achieving 2.5 times your production budget is generally considered the minimum threshold for theatrical success before taking into account other sources of income. For a similar price, the sequel doesn’t have much wiggle room. If current projections are confirmed, longer legs will be needed to make up the difference. This is one of the main reasons why “The Bone Temple” is on our list of the biggest box office bets of 2026.

Audience and critical reception will be key. Early fan reactions at screenings have been positive, but it will also need strong word-of-mouth from moviegoers in general. THE the wild conclusion of “28 Years Later” ended things on a strange note. Will this discourage potential audiences? Or encourage them to see where this all leads, especially since Cillian Murphy’s Jim from “28 Days Later” is expected to play a major role in the third installment? For this to matter, Sony needs people to stay invested.

Another obstacle? This month will be filled with horror films in more direct competition with “The Temple of Bones”, including this weekend’s “Primate” “Return to Silent Hill” and “Send Help” by Sam Raimi. The pressure is strong.

“28 Years Later: The Temple of Bones” hits theaters on January 16, 2026.