US targets sanctioned Venezuelan oil, but more of Russia’s growing shadow fleet could also be swept away

As the new Marinera tanker crossed the North Atlantic toward Russia, it was followed by the U.S. Coast Guard, who had been pursuing it for more than two weeks as part of their mission. blockade on Venezuelan oil.

During that time, the ship changed course, changed its name and changed its flag, according to maritime databases. The crew itself would have hastily painted a Russian flag on the rusty hull.

But that did not stop the United States from taking control of the ship, with help from the United Kingdom, on Wednesday while it was off the southern coast of Iceland. U.S. officials said it was seized as part of Washington’s plan to target ships it considers a threat to the security and stability of the “Western Hemisphere.”

Russia, which reportedly deployed a submarine and other military vesselsLocal residents called it an illegal act, with one lawmaker saying it amounted to piracy.

Maritime intelligence experts at Windward don’t recall another case where a NATO country apprehended a Russian ship in international waters, but they expect more tankers to come under Washington’s control as it steps up pressure on Venezuela, adding that it’s possible more Russian ships could be involved in the campaign.

“US regulators are watching. More seizures are likely,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analystt Windward, a global company headquartered in London that researches and tracks maritime activity.

“The United States has shown that it is possible to interdict, seize and deal with oil tankers if they fail to comply with the rules-based international order.”

What remains unclear, however, is Russia’s potential response to the seizure and, more broadly, how it will affect the global Shadow Fleet, a group of vessels with opaque ownership structures that use deceptive shipping practices to circumvent sanctions.

While the size of the Ghost Fleet grew rapidly after Russia was sanctioned by Western countries for its invasion of Ukraine, the Ghost Ships were used by Iran and North Korea for years.

Ship seizures

Since December, the United States has taken control of four oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Two were seized off the country’s coast in Decemberr, and two more on Wednesday.

A few hours before the seizure of the Marinera, the United States Southern Command took control of what it calls a “stateless, sanctioned, dark fleet” tanker that was operating in the international waters of the Caribbean Sea.

The M/T Sophia was carrying 1.8 million barrels of oil, which analysts say was probably intended for China.

According to Bockmannm, the ship, which frequently calls at Venezuelan ports, had a history of deceptive practices and often spoofed or obscured its location.

She claims the Marinera operated in a similar manner and had a long history of trading with Iran and Venezuela since 2021. The ship is believed to have been en route to the Russian port of Murmansk when it was intercepted.

Bockmann said the ship had been fraudulently flying the flag of Guyana, a country which does not have an international shipping register. The ship was deemed stateless by international maritime authorities before hastily changing its flag to Russia.

The rush to Russia

Bockmann said in recent yearson, 21 tankers of the Dark Fleet, all falso reported, also made the same transfer to Russia.

“This emerging trend has accelerated very quickly since the interception of the first tanker on December 10.,” said Bockmann.

The vessels are considered by the authorities to be “falsely reported” if they claim to fly the flag of a country where they are not legally registered, if they carry a canceled registration, or if the vessel continues to rapidly reflag so as to avoid surveillance.

If so, they are considered stateless, allowing authorities to board them in international waters under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Bockmann believes that the risk of being considered stateless and vulnerable to seizure is one reason why about two dozen ships have reflagged to Russia in the past month.

On Wednesday, the Russian Transport Ministry said it had granted the Marinera “temporary permission” to sail under the Russian flag on December 24. Russian officials called on the United States to ensure the humane and decent treatment of all crew members and ensure their prompt return home.

The Marinera was the subject of a US federal warrant for transporting sanctioned Iranian oil and in a briefing with reporters, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the crew was facing prosecution and could be brought back to the United States for such prosecution if necessary.

Russian ghost tankers have been subject to numerous rounds of Western sanctions, but continue to operate in a murky network, transporting Russian oil to its biggest customers, India and China.

US Stocks Could Prompt More Foreclosures

A number of NATO countries bordering the Baltic Sea have stepped up maritime patrols after a series of cables were cut, sparking fears of sabotage.

Ami Daniel, CEO and co-founder of Windward, wonders whether the European Union will consider taking a more aggressive approach to ghost tankers, given Washington’s success in seizing the vessels.

Conversely, he wonders whether Washington’s seizure of a foreign-flagged ship could prompt other countries to take the same action.

“Will we see Russia apprehending US-flagged ships or European-flagged ships? Will we see China doing the same?”

“I think we should ask ourselves: What does this mean for counteractions?”