Polymarket Withholds Payments as Debate Erupts Over Definition of Venezuela ‘Invasion’

Polymarket is would have refusing to pay bets related to whether the US military invades Venezuela, citing discrepancies in terminology.

The operator is currently contesting former President Nicolas Maduro’s capture mission, which represented an invasion of Venezuela, and the company will only settle a contract if the military actually takes control of the country.

A successful trader made $400,000 following Maduro’s capture after betting more than $32,000 that the former president would be removed from power by the end of January.

This was trading at an average of 7 cents before the market finally paid out at 100 cents when it was transported out of the country.

So, the mystery trader won $400,000, but there is controversy surrounding the bet regarding the definition of the term “invasion.”

Polymarket states that it will resolve the question “Will the United States invade Venezuela from here…?” » contract predicts whether the country “begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Venezuela” on any of the following three dates.

Because that didn’t happen. There is no scam pic.twitter.com/FajenS6TyE

– tenadome (@tenad0me) January 7, 2026

In total, $10.5 million was bet on the Polymarket contract providing for an American invasion of Venezuela. Most of them relate to the January 31 deadline, while the rest are based on contracts ending in March and December.

Polymarket is not the only prediction market to spark controversy in recent times as Kalshi faces a backlash.

Kalshi appears to have backtracked on NFL bet

A few days ago, a tweet from analyst Dustin Gouker showed that Kalshi failed to call a winning bet on the San Francisco 49ers winning more than 10.5 games during the 2025 NFL regular season.

wtf… the people who correctly bet the 49ers total were refunded only for the cost and not for the winnings when they were mis-scored? And they won’t just eat it? pic.twitter.com/lsbzEyAt6Z

– Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) January 7, 2026

“The people who correctly bet the 49ers total were only reimbursed for the cost and not for the winnings from poor scoring? And they’re not just going to eat it?” Gouker wrote about X earlier this week.

The 49ers won 12 games, but the customer was only refunded rather than the bet settling as a win.

It was me in the discord. Absolutely crazy. If anyone has more information on what I can do to get Kalshi paid, DMs are open https://t.co/4kqzOtoqRa

-Hayden (@capdcrd2) January 7, 2026

Kalshi said that “these markets were determined by mistake at the beginning, so everyone was refunded the cost plus fees.”

Prediction markets are not treated with the same scrutiny as traditional sports betting. Following these tweets from Gouker, Kalshi reversed the outcome and paid these winning bets.

Featured image: Polymarché

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