“The trajectory of progress depends” on these 3 questions

Bill Gates is like optimistic about the future of the world, despite the fact that we live in “a time with so many challenges and so much polarization,” the billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder wrote in a statement. blog post Friday.

The world faces many reasons to worry about issues such as climate change, global health and poverty, and disruptions caused by artificial intelligence, Gates wrote. However, “we are much better off than when I was born 70 years ago,” Gates wrote, thanks in part to technological innovations and global health.

Gates also believes that conditions will remain improvement over the next two decadesespecially as AI spurs further advances, he wrote: “I remain optimistic as I see what innovation accelerated by artificial intelligence will bring.”

But there are some caveats. “These days, my optimism comes with footnotes,” Gates wrote.

Specifically, Gates worries about three questions that could determine “the trajectory of [the world’s] progress,” he wrote:

1. Will a world that becomes richer increase its generosity towards those in need?

The number of deaths of children under 5 worldwide is expected to increase by around 200,000 in 2025, the first time in 25 years. according to a report published by the Gates Foundation in December.

The projected statistics are “what bothers me most” about the world’s progress, Gates wrote Friday. He linked it to significant reductions in global aid spending by major governments around the world, including the United States

“Over the past 25 years, these deaths have declined faster than at any other time in history. But in 2025, they have increased for the first time this century…” Gates wrote. “This trend will continue unless we make progress in restoring aid budgets.”

The continued improvement in living standards on a global scale depends, in part, on wealthy countries and individuals: like him – reiterating their commitment to contributing some of their abundant resources to help those in need and reduce inequality around the world, Gates wrote. The billionaire announced his intention in May 2025 to step up your own charitable giving as part of a pledge to give away “virtually all” of his wealth – which is currently estimated at $118 billion per Bloomberg – by 2045.

“This idea of ​​treating others as you would like to be treated does not only apply to rich countries providing aid. It must also include the philanthropy of the rich to help those in need – both domestically and internationally – which is expected to grow rapidly in a world with a record number of billionaires and even a hundred billion billionaires,” he wrote on Friday.

2. Will the world prioritize innovations that improve equality?

Gates’ optimism is bolstered by his belief in the power of technology, particularly AI, to create new advances in medical treatments, he writes. Gates pointed out AI-powered advances in Alzheimer’s researchas well as cancer and the health crises still facing developing countries, since malaria has malnutrition.

The Microsoft co-founder also I have long been a supporter to use AI to improve education in the United States and abroad. AI tutors could eventually “be like a great high school teacher,” providing personalized instruction to students of all income levels and geographies, Gates said in his “Don’t confuse me” Podcast in August 2023.

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In his blog post, Gates also linked environmental issues to global equality, writing that climate change could “combine with poverty and infectious diseases to cause enormous suffering, especially for the world’s poorest people.”

After arguing before For some climate research funding to be redirected to issues like poverty and health care, Gates wrote Friday that he still plans to “invest and donate more than ever in climate work in the years to come.”

Agricultural applications of AI could help provide farmers in developing countries with better advice and more adaptive crops, to help them survive the challenges of growing food in warming environments, he wrote.

3. Will we minimize the negative disruption caused by AI as it accelerates?

Clearly, Gates is an AI optimist. He has also written about the risks of technology and the need to work proactively to avoid worst-case scenarios, citing two specific challenges for the next two decades: the potential use of AI by bad actors And disruptions in the labor market.

“These are two real risks that we need to do better at managing,” Gates wrote. Governments around the world and the tech industry will need to “deliberate how this technology will be developed, governed and deployed,” he added.

Gates offered no specific suggestions, but pushed back on the idea that AI could significantly harm the prospects of human workers, writing that “we should be able to allocate these new capabilities in ways that benefit everyone,” including the potential to shorter work weeks for some people. This optimism comes from his belief in “two fundamental human capacities,” he noted.

“The first is our ability to anticipate and prepare for problems, and thus ensure that our new discoveries improve the lot of us all. The second is our ability to care about each other,” Gates wrote, adding that history is filled with examples of people who put “the common good” ahead of their own personal interests.

“These two qualities – foresight and thoughtfulness – are what give me hope at the start of this year,” Gates wrote. “As long as we continue to exercise these capabilities, I believe the years to come can be ones of real progress.”

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