Who can stop the world No. 1 in Melbourne?

Aryna Sabalenka has been the most consistent force in women’s tennis in Australia over the past three seasons. She only lost twice during this period Down Under, winning several titles.

Since the start of 2023, she is 38-2 in matches in Australia, including Brisbane and the Australian Open. She has reached the final at each of the last three Brisbane International events (2024, 2025 and 2026) and the last three Australian Open events (2023, 2024 and 2025). She also won the Adelaide International title in 2023.

Most recently, Sabalenka started her season with another title win in Brisbane. She beat Madison Keys, Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk win in Brisbane without losing a set. It was his second consecutive title at this event.

This level of form makes Sabalenka a strong favorite for the 2026 Australian Open before the tournament begins. Despite its imposing shape, it is not unbeatable. Two players have beaten Sabalenka in Australia since 2023.

Elena Rybakina beat Aryna Sabalenka in 2024 in Brisbane

Elena Rybakina got the better of Sabalenka in the Brisbane 2024 international final. The Kazakh cruised to a comfortable 6-0, 6-3 victory to halt the Belarusian’s 15-match winning streak in Australia.

Madison Keys defeated Aryna who you will meet in 2025 and at the Australian Open

The second player to defeat Sabalenka in Australia in the last three years was Madison Keys. The American stopped Sabalenka’s attempt in Melbourne by beating her in the 2025 Australian Open final 6-3, 2-6, 7-5. Keys ended Sabalenka’s 20-fight winning streak at Melbourne Park.

These results highlight both Sabalenka’s dominance and the fact that some players can still find a way to defeat her in high-pressure matches.

Who could beat the world No. 1 at the 2026 Australian Open? The obvious choices:

There are a handful of top players who pose legitimate threats to Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open. Iga Swiatek remains one of the few players in the world capable of exerting sustained pressure from the baseline. Her movement, court coverage and ability to redirect pace make her a consistent contender for Grand Slam tournaments.

Coco Gauff is another clear name. The American’s athleticism, speed on the court and constantly improving serve have propelled her regularly into semi-finals and major finals. She has already beaten Swiatek, Sabalenka and other top players in big matches.

Elena Rybakina also stands out beyond the two obvious ones. She has played a spoiler role to top players in the past and has beaten Sabalenka several times in recent years on hard courts. Rybakina’s big serve and flat groundstrokes can push long rallies and apply early pressure in return games.

Who could beat Aryna Sabalenka at the 2026 Australian Open? Names with H2H lead and hardcourt wins that could threaten it

Beyond the big favorites, there are players whose head-to-head records and past victories over Aryna Sabalenka make them interesting dark horses.

World No. 4 Amanda Anisimova had success against Sabalenka in their career meetings. The American leads the rivalry in the general classification. She leads Sabalenka 6-5 in their head-to-head record, suggesting the American’s aggressive groundstrokes and ability to take control early can trouble the world No. 1.

Anisimova combined this H2H advantage with excellent results on hard courts. She is climbing the rankings and posting impressive results in 2025. She reached two Grand Slam finals and could force her way to another in Melbourne in 2026.

In the meantime, Karolina Muchova is another name with a favorable head-to-head matchup against Sabalenka. On paper, Muchova leads the rivalry 3-2, with two of those victories coming on hard court. This includes matches where she used slice, variety and tactical play to disrupt big hitters.

Muchova’s creative play can be most effective when she is fully fit and confident, which can pose unique problems for Sabalenka’s heavy striking and pace. Even though Sabalenka beat her in the semi-finals of the 2026 Brisbane International, their past results show that Muchova has the game to challenge her.

On her best day, Aryna Sabalenka remains the benchmark. Other days, these challengers showed they could take advantage of opportunities. The Australian Open draw will determine how these potential matchups play out.