How China intervenes in oil tanker seizures targeting Maduro and Venezuela

The intensification of the American campaign seize tankers linked to Venezuelan oil It could also exacerbate tensions between the U.S. government and China if more crude oil intended for the Chinese market is caught up in the U.S. military campaign.

Saturday, the Panama-flagged oil tanker Centuries seized carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil, a decision sentenced by China. This seizure was the latest to date President Donald Trumpthe wish of block tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. Maritime experts say the move could rely on legal authority suggesting more seizures are coming and potentially targeting more oil destined for the Chinese market.

According to Dimitris Ampatzidis, senior risk and compliance analyst at Kpler, the seizure of the Panama-flagged Centuries may have been carried out as part of the 2002 Salas-Becker Agreementwhich allows U.S. authorities to board Panama-flagged ships with just two hours’ notice.

“The most interesting part of the Centuries seizure is the suggestion that the United States is likely relying on its prior boarding agreement with the Panama Maritime Authority,” Ampatzidis said, adding that reliance on that agreement could lead to additional seizures.

Kpler’s analysis shows that of a total of 23 ghost tankers currently identified in Venezuela’s exclusive economic zone, three of them operate under the Panamanian flag and are loaded with sanctioned Venezuelan crude.

“If the Ragnar, the Balsa and the Larko try to leave, that puts them in the higher risk category of controls because they are operating under the Panamanian flag,” Ampatzidis said. “We may see seizures like we have seen over the centuries.”

Ragnar was charged on December 16, and Balsa and Larko were charged on December 17.

“Beyond the ships already sanctioned, the United States appears increasingly willing to target other ships linked to the Ghost Fleet when they attempt to leave Venezuela with goods – particularly if they are stateless (without a flag) or flying a Panamanian flag,” Ampatzidis said.

“The most interesting aspect of all of this is that by squeezing Venezuelan oil, you not only put enormous pressure on the Maduro regime, but you also have a strategic impact on China,” said Aaron Roth, a retired Coast Guard captain and director of federal strategy and security for the Chertoff Group. “The longer this goes on, the more space it can create for negotiation in U.S.-China diplomacy, because Venezuelan oil is being downgraded to China’s benefit, and that’s the type of heavy crude that China can refine,” he said. “Without VZ oil, China will have to go to the markets of Russia and the Middle East, which will cost it more,” he added.

Venezuela has produced about 900,000 barrels of crude oil and condensate so far in 2025, representing about 1% of total global supply. Kpler data indicates that China buys around 76% of Venezuela’s production. The United States imported about 17% of Venezuelan production in 2025. This is about half the percentage of imported production in 2024. Other important customers of Venezuelan oil are Cuba, Spain, and Italy.

The U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Department of Transportation directed requests for comment to the White House, which did not respond at the time of publication.

Recent history of the Centuries oil tanker seized

Kpler data showed that Centuries had already been actively involved in multiple operations related to the transportation of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil, both as loading long-haul tankers at the Jose oil terminal in Venezuela and as a transshipment vessel operating off the coast of Venezuela and Malaysia.

Kpler data showed the United States seized Centuries after it loaded crude at the Jose oil terminal. Kpler data detected usurped AIS positions concealing the location of the tanker just before loading the vessel. The erroneous signals showed that the ship was sailing to the Caribbean in early December, had reached the northern coast of Curaçao on December 12, and was apparently remaining stationary in that area.

However, Kpler’s analysis of the images showed that the ship had in fact been off the coast of Venezuela since at least December 4. Additional supporting footage indicated that the tanker was empty during this time. But on December 9, satellite images confirmed that the tanker was being loaded on the west jetty of the Venezuelan port JOT.

Venezuelan port operating reports reviewed by Kpler showed that the vessel operating under the pseudonym “Crag” was loaded with approximately two million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude from the same berth around the same time Centuries was loading. After loading, the Centuries remained just east of JOT, with images showing the tanker positioned off the coast of Lechería, Venezuela, on December 16.

“Two days later, satellite images showed that the vessel had left Venezuelan waters and was observed approximately three miles south of Grenada, consistent with a voyage to Asia,” according to a Kpler report on the Centuries seizure.

The market is unable to know in advance whether a ship full of sanctioned oil is heading directly to China, with spoofing and transshipment between tankers used to avoid detection, and confirmation only available after the fact. The two ships seized this weekend have already transported crude oil to China, according to Kpler.

Centuries was first observed loading two million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan Merey crude in April 2020. The oil was unloaded at the Yantai oil terminal in Shandong province, China.

The second ship seized this weekend, the Bella 1, was empty and heading to Venezuela. The tanker had transported Iranian oil to Qingdao, Shandong province, in mid-March. Bella 1’s last trip from Venezuela was in May 2023 and this oil also went to Qingdao and Tianjin, China.

“What remains to be determined is how China would react if the Trump administration seized a ship headed toward it,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The seizure of Panama-flagged ships, like that of the Centuries, also comes amid existing friction between the United States, China and Panama over control of the Panama Canal. Trump has threatened to take back the Panama Canal, saying the waterway is controlled by China.

“Geopolitics, in many different forms, are having an increasing impact on global trade, economic relations and maritime supply chains. This appears to be another example of that,” said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta.

The U.S.’s reliance on a legal agreement requiring Panama’s cooperation in seizing ships could be seen by China in the context of a broader fight over the canal. “If the ship is actually Panama-flagged and you’re embarking on the high seas, you typically need authorization from the flag state (for the ages, that would be Panama),” said Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain consulting firm Exiger. “The United States and Panama have frameworks that can streamline this consent. That would most likely indicate cooperation, through Salas-Becker or some other mechanism,” he said.

While China has called the recent U.S. action a violation of international law, the United States is treating the seizure as sanctions evasion and a shadow fleet tactic intended to derail sanctions enforcement. “With the documented misrepresentations of origin in this case, I lean heavily toward the latter,” Daniels said.

But Daniels, who spoke with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino earlier this year about tensions over the Panama Canal, added: “He takes their sovereignty very seriously.”

Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison owns and operates the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal, located on both sides of the canal. The United States has accused China of having “influence and control” over the canal and says the threat represents a “violation of the treaty” between the United States and Panama.

A preliminary agreement for the sale of the two disputed Panama Canal ports reached earlier this year between CK Hutchison and a consortium led by BlackRock, through its Global Infrastructure Partners unit, and Mediterranean Shipping, are at an impasse. Beijing opposed the deal. China is reportedly pushing for state-owned shipping carrier Cosco have a majority stake in the proposed $22.8 billion deal.

Daniels says the Trump administration’s concerns about Chinese influence will persist if Cosco is added to the deal. But he described Mulino as also valuing “the trust he has with his Asian business partners.”

“I don’t think the more aggressive Chinese measures regarding Balboa and Cristobal prevent Panama from maintaining the neutrality of the canal or cooperating with the United States,” Daniels said.

“China could find itself facing a choke point in global commercial container transshipment capacity, docking priority, yard operations and trade data depletion, under Cosco’s control. This is putting pressure on the supply chain,” he said. “But the CCP today can exert influence over Hong Kong entities (like the current owner of the operations, CK),” he added.

He said the current situation shows the dynamic and complex relationships Panama has with China and the United States. “Panama is very focused on its role as a South Asian corridor and major flag state for shipping, but it seeks cooperation with the United States as a strategic imperative for sustainable financing,” Daniels said.