Global economy faces headwinds, but aviation is expected to defy them

The global economy can be confronted with an uncertain 2025 in the light of commercial tensions and geopolitical conflicts, but there is a bright point that investors can be comforting: aviation.

The profitability of the aeronautical industry is expected to improve in 2025, although the global indoor product growth is planned at 2.5% in 2025, against 3.3% in 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association.

In a report published on Monday, IATA said that income, operating profits and net benefits of industry should increase compared to 2024, although some of them are lower than projections made in December.

For example, the net benefits of industry are scheduled for $ 36 billion for $ 2025, compared to $ 32.4 billion earned in 2024, but slightly lower than the December 36.6 billion projection.

The net profit margin of the aeronautical industry should also reach 3.7% in 2025, against 3.4% the previous year.

Total income is expected to reach a record summit of $ 979 billion, 1.3% more than the previous year, but down compared to the 1 dollars Billion in its last forecasts.

IATA has attributed the best results mainly with two factors: lower jet fuel costs and greater efficiency.

It expects the passenger load factors to reach a record level in 2025 with an annual average of 84%, “while the expansion and modernization of the fleet remain difficult in the failures of the supply chain in the aerospace sector”. Plf Watch how much an airline effectively fills its seats.

Jet fuel costs are expected to be a barrel on average $ 86 in 2025, compared to $ 99 in 2024, noted IATA, saying that it would result in a total fuel bill of $ 236 billion, 25 billion dollars lower than $ 261 billion engaged in 2024.

“Recent financial data shows a minimum fuel coverage activity in the past year, indicating that airlines will generally benefit from the reduced fuel cost. It is not provided that fuel is affected by trade tensions,” said IATA.

India and Pakistan recently closed their airspace At the other’s plane after military strikes made by both sides in May. Pakistani planes are prohibited from Indian airspace until June 23, and Indian planes are prohibited from Pakistan until June 24.

“Uncertainty is not useful for business, but the underlying fundamental principles of this market … and the advantage that we see before Air India makes us advance, because we think there is a massive opportunity to realize,” added Wilson.

He said India is the third air market in the world and estimated that it increased at an annual growth rate from 8% to 10%. “So if the Indians start to travel … at the intensity of China, it will absolutely explode in volume internationally,” he said.

Adrian Neuhauser, president and chief executive officer of the Colombian flag carrier Avianca, said in an interview on Sunday “when the world sneezed in any way … Airlines fall sick very quickly.”

However, he said, the Avianca passenger load factors are still resistant and income has improved. “So, the concern is there, but to date, we always see the figures.”

The kilometers of income passengers, or RPK, are A measure of the volume of passengers transported by an airline. Metric is used to assess the performance of airlines and demand for passengers.

IATA said that “if an airline sees a constant increase in RPKs on a particular route over several months, this could encourage the carrier to increase the frequency of flights or deploy larger planes to meet growing demand – potentially increase income and market share.”

He has granted a high demand for passengers in Asia-Pacific to the relaxation of visa requirements in several Asian countries, in particular China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

IATA, however, noted that the economic landscape poses certain challenges, the GDP forecasts for the region, in particular China, having been lowered.