Some snowbirds want to leave Florida. A bad real estate market makes it difficult to leave

As the era of bilateral tensions between Canada and the United States drags on, some snowbirds will face a choice in January: head south to warmer climes or boycott a country that has gone from friend to foe.

This decision is more difficult for the hundreds of thousands of Canadians who collectively own a property estimated at $60 billion in Floridathe favored refuge of generations of those who are tired of winter.

Donna Lockhart, a snowbird from Ennismore, Ontario, decided recent anti-Canadian sentiment It was too much to bear and it was time to put his apartment near Punta Gorda, Florida, up for sale and leave US President Donald Trump’s America.

In addition to Trump’s speech on the 51st state and the ongoing trade war, dismissive remarks from Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis have been criticized. hostile to Canada And mocked Ontario Premier Doug Ford last month – made her feel unwelcome in a place she had made her second home.

“I think you get a little more anxious as you get older, and I don’t like the direction the United States is going. If they don’t want us there, we don’t need to be there,” Lockhart said in an interview with CBC News.

But when the time came to list her home, Lockhart faced a complication: She wasn’t the only one trying to leave. The ongoing Canadian exodus has hit the real estate market in parts of the state, and Southwest Florida is particularly vulnerable to snowbird-induced selling.

“There aren’t a lot of people watching,” she said. “Supply far exceeds demand.”

Housing Issues in Southwest Florida

Southwest Florida, which stretches along the Gulf Coast from Naples in the south to the edge of Tampa Bay in the north, is grappling with a multitude of housing problems.

A number of hurricanes have ravaged this often sun-drenched part of the state over the past five years, destroying homes, damaging others and driving up the price of insurance — in some cases dramatically. The average policy price has climbed about 40 percent in three yearsaccording to state regulators.

The COVID-19 boom that sent prices soaring is over. House construction is in full swing despite a drop in the number of applicants for property. Add in the rush of Canadians trying to get out, and it’s simply not the ideal time to sell, analysts say.

In the Lockhart neighborhood, nestled along Charlotte Harbor, more than 100 units are on the market. That means nearly 10 percent of all homes in the quaint boating community are currently for sale, which is well above the average turnover rate. A unit similar to his in the same building has been listed since last April.

“Southwest Florida is characterized by an exceptionally high level of inventory right now,” Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com who tracks the Florida market, said in an interview.

“Prices are coming down significantly and time on market is increasing and what we’re seeing there is greater supply than we’ve seen in years,” Berner said.

Part of that can be attributed to Canadian pushback, he said.

“The number of Canadian buyers in Florida and the United States as a whole has kind of declined.”

The Canadian exodus

Realtor.com has observed a decline in the number of Canadians interested in purchasing a home in the United States. Traffic to its website, one of the largest SEO sites, has been lighter.

THE company data shows that two Southwest Florida destinations are among the four most sought after by Canadians in all of the United States: the Cape Coral-Fort Myers and North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro areas.

These two areas also happen to be where the company projects the biggest price drops in the state in 2026.

Berner said he was waiting prices will drop by 10.2 percent in Cape Coral, 8.9 percent in North Port and 3.6 percent in Tampa, further north — declines beyond what has already been recorded in a painful 2025.

John Willows, a retiree who lives in rural eastern Ontario, not far from the U.S. border, is one of those people who stays away. Although he is an avid boater and loved his winters spent in Florida, he said he couldn’t bear to go to the United States right now.

“We are in a trade war and we have to support our own side,” Willows said in an interview. “I’m stubborn and I just decided, ‘Hey, I’ve had enough.’ And just to throw it in their faces, I’m probably going to Cuba instead.”

Declining sales data aligns with what Royal LePage found in a survey of Canadian real estate owners In the United States: 54 percent plan to sell their home in the United States in the next year.

“Nearly two-thirds of them actually cited concerns about the current U.S. administration as the primary reason to sell,” Anne-Elise Cugliari Allegritti, vice president of research and communications, said in an interview.

“The main reason is, overwhelmingly, the current political climate in the United States. This is a real test of where Canadians are today.”

A different approach

At least one Florida politician is trying to get wary Canadians to stay put or return to his part of the state, given the region’s dependence on its northern neighbors.

“It’s unfortunate because Canadians love coming here and I understand why they’re not here right now,” said Allen Spence, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress in a district that includes hard-hit Sarasota.

“But not everyone here believes what Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are saying. There are people like me who are spending a lot of money and free time trying to expel these MAGA politicians.”

Canadians pay about $600 million a year in property taxes alone, according to the Canadian consulate in Miami. Restaurants, small businesses and the workers they employ in Gulf Coast tourist towns are suffering from the absence of many Canadians, Spence said.

The state’s own data shows the number of Canadian visitors has plungeddespite the assertions of its governor concerning record tourism.

“The Canadian boycott absolutely affects us. It hurts us financially because people from Canada who come here stay for weeks or months,” he said. “Now we are seeing more of the tax burden being shifted from tourists to residents.”

And it’s not just about money, Spence said.

“It’s unfortunate. We have a shared history; we were allies in both world wars. We’re basically cousins ​​and I wish we treated our family with a little more respect.”

Lockhart spoke the same way. The aggressive posture from a longtime ally was “like a slap in the face,” she said.

In her case, rather than selling in a bear market, she and her husband decided to wait and list in early 2027, hoping prices will rebound by then. And since she has to pay fees whether or not she lives in the condo, she decided to go there this winter while she still owns the property.

She said she faced small acts of antagonism because she was Canadian.

“Things have changed, we feel less comfortable.”