SpaceX will bring thousands of Starlinks closer to Earth in 2026. Here’s why



Earth’s orbit is becoming crowded, increasing the risk of satellite collisions that could disrupt vital services, create dangerous debris clouds and, in some cases, send pieces of wreckage into the atmosphere. To address this problem, the operator of the world’s largest megaconstellation will bring thousands of its satellites closer to the ground.

On New Year’s Day, Michael Nicolls, vice president of Star link engineering to EspaceXannounced that the company would lower all Starlink satellites into orbit 342 miles (550 kilometers) above Earth to an altitude of 298 miles (480 km). The reconfiguration will move around 4,400 satellites and will be carried out during 2026, it said.

At first glance, this solution may seem counterintuitive. How will bringing this highly volatile and concentrated fleet of fast-moving orbital objects closer to our planet improve security? you might ask. Nicolls said the reconfiguration would do this in several ways.

The danger of an overcrowded orbit

More than 9,000 of Earth’s 14,300 active satellites are Starlinks, according to Jonathan McDowell, a retired astrophysicist who tracks objects in low Earth orbit. SpaceX hopes that number will eventually reach 42,000 Starlinks. With other companies and institutions launching their own satellites, we are quickly running out of orbital land.

Experts warn that the consequences of overpopulation of LEOs could be disastrous. A recent study discovered that satellites, particularly Starlinks, are constantly maneuvering to avoid collisions. If they suddenly lost their ability to do so, it could lead to a catastrophic accident in just 2.8 days, the researchers concluded.

Such a collision could generate enough debris to cause more collisions and potentially trigger the first stage of Kessler syndrome. In this theoretical scenario, LEO becomes so cluttered that collisions between objects trigger a chain reaction, producing exponentially more debris. This would weaken the satellite networks on which we depend and make it impossible to launch certain space missions.

Satellite operators must act urgently to avoid this worst-case scenario, but the simplest solution – launching fewer satellites – is unrealistic. Humanity’s dependence on satellite systems such as GPS and communications is only growing, leading to an industrial boom also fueled by decreasing launch costs and increasing government investment.

And even if we stopped launching new satellites tomorrow, the volume of existing objects in LEO would still present a significant collision risk. Nicolls is therefore looking for an alternative solution: moving several thousand Starlinks to a lower orbit.

Lower satellites, reduced risk of collision

According to Nicolls, the reconfiguration will place these Starlinks in a much less crowded orbit, reducing the overall likelihood of collision.

The move will also allow satellites to deorbit more quickly at the end of their active life, reducing the number of defunct Starlinks hanging around in orbit. Atmospheric drag is greater at lower altitudes, so by flying lower they re-enter the atmosphere sooner. Once in their new orbit, these 4,400 Starlinks are expected to see an 80% reduction in the time it takes to naturally fall back to Earth, from more than four years to just a few months, Nicolls said.

This will be particularly important as we approach solar minimum – the low activity phase of the Sun’s 11-year cycle – which is expected will occur around 2030. As we get closer to this part of the cycle, the atmospheric density decreases because the Sun emits less extreme solar ultraviolet radiation. This causes the atmosphere to cool and contract, reducing drag and forcing defunct orbiters to stay in space longer.

The reconfiguration is a massive undertaking that will require precise, coordinated maneuvers across thousands of Starlink satellites. SpaceX will also need to work closely with other operators, regulators and US Space Command to achieve it safely. Although the potential benefits for space security seem significant on paper, their real-world impact remains to be measured.





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