The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) fell -0.03% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.04% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.05%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.08% and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) closed -0.07%.
The S&P 500 index hit a new record high on Friday, then fell back and closed the day slightly lower. Stocks ran out of steam on Friday heading into the weekend, but the S&P 500 still closed the week up +1.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index closed the week up +1.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell -0.6 bps on Friday, providing the stock market with some underlying support. Additionally, the odds of an FOMC rate cut at its meeting have risen to 20% from Tuesday’s low of 13%.
Stocks were supported during the week by confidence in the US economic outlook following Tuesday’s announcement that US real GDP in the third quarter grew +4.3% (q/q annualized), well above market expectations of +3.3%.
Gold, silver and platinum hit new all-time highs on Friday on early dollar weakness and geopolitical concerns, with U.S. targets in Nigeria and ongoing tensions in Venezuela.
The United States launched strikes against IS targets in Nigeria on Thursday as part of a security and intelligence collaboration with the Nigerian government to combat rising terrorist attacks in the country. Nigeria is a member of OPEC. Mr Trump had previously warned that the US would strike ISIS in Nigeria if the group did not stop killing Christians.
The U.S. Coast Guard forced the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 to leave Venezuela and head toward the Atlantic Ocean, according to a Bloomberg report. US forces have been monitoring the ship for several days as part of President Trump’s blockade of sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela. US forces wanted to board the Bella 1 near Barbados on Sunday, but the ship returned to the Atlantic Ocean.
There could be progress in reaching a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukrainian President Zelensky saying he plans to meet with President Trump on Sunday in Florida. Mr Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is 90% ready, but it depends on the meeting with Mr Trump and cannot be finalized without input from Russia and Europe. Russia reportedly said the 20-point peace plan did not answer many questions.
Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time during the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.
Markets are pricing in a 20% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.
Foreign stock markets closed higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed on Friday as part of the Christmas holidays. China’s Shanghai Composite index closed up +0.10% for the eighth consecutive daily gain. The Japanese Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.68%.
Interest rate
March 10-year Treasuries (ZNH6) rose +2.5 ticks. The yield on the 10-year T-note fell -0.6 bps to 4.128%. Treasury prices were supported by the -2.5% drop in crude oil prices on Friday and the -1.2 basis point drop in the 10-year expected breakeven inflation rate to 2.225%.
European government bond markets were closed on Friday as part of the Christmas holidays.
Swaps anticipate a 4% probability of a +25 basis point rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
Stock movers in the United States
Magnificent Seven shares closed mixed on Friday. Nvidia (NVDA) rose +1.0%, but Tesla (TSLA) fell -2.10%, and four other Magnificent Seven stocks also closed lower.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose +1.0% after announcing a licensing deal with AI startup Groq to integrate Groq’s AI inference and low-latency chip technology into Nvidia’s product lineup.
Chip stocks closed mixed, with upside leadership from Nvidia. Additionally, Asml Holding (ASML) and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up +0.6%. However, Arm Holdings (ARM) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) closed down more than -1%.
Stocks exposed to cryptocurrencies closed lower, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) falling around -0.4%.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) fell more than -4%. Mara Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell more than -3%. Coinbase Global (COIN) fell -1.2%.
Energy companies showed broad weakness as crude oil prices fell -2.4% on Friday. Devon Energy (DVN) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) fell more than -1%.
Mining companies saw strength, with gold, silver and platinum posting record highs, and copper trading higher. Coeur Mining (CDE) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up more than 2%. Hecla Mining (HL) and Newmont Mining (NEM) rebounded +1% or more.
Target (TGT) closed up more than +3% after the Financial Times reported that activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management had taken a stake in the retailer.
Income Reports (12/29/2025)
None.
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data contained in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
